On March 20, South China Morning Post reported, citing an analysis by a director at the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, that Iran has stockpiles of missiles and drones capable of sustaining military operations for at least two to three months, while the United States is facing a shortage of interceptor missiles.
According to open-source information, Iran’s stock of ballistic missiles is likely under 1,000, but it holds an advantage in drones. An expert explained, “Iran’s drones are relatively easy to produce and deploy, so they likely maintain sufficient stock. In the short term, disruptions to drone supply are expected to be minimal. If there is no internal unrest, Iran could sustain operations for the next two to three months.”
The expert added that the remaining missiles are either difficult to locate or strictly guarded, making it unrealistic for the United States to completely destroy Iran’s missile capability. Iran’s low-cost Shahed-136 drones (estimated at $20,000–$50,000 each) can challenge U.S. Patriot and THAAD air defense systems, which cost millions of dollars per unit.
Iran’s core strategic advantage is its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Retired PLA colonel Yue Gang noted that Iran also controls maritime measures such as sea mines, and emphasized that the decisive factor in ending a war is not ammunition but political will—that is, whether the U.S. is willing to pursue a conflict to the end.
Yang Shu, an official at the Lanzhou University Institute for Central Asian Studies, said that the United States has underestimated Iran’s defensive capabilities, committing a serious strategic error. He noted that systems such as THAAD do not guarantee 100% defense, and a single attack could cause significant damage.
