Speech from Struggle Unity (Türkiye) for the 1st Session “NATO Expansion and the Balkans” of the International Colloquium in Belgrade on June 29
It’s a hidden but well-known story about one of whispered assurances and broken promises.
February 1990, at the negotiating table for Germany’s reunification. The question was whether NATO would expand towards the Soviet border if the Soviet Union allowed reunification.
James Baker, the former US Secretary of State, sitting across Mikhail Gorbachev, said: “It is important to obtain guarantees that, not only for the Soviet Union but also for other European countries, NATO’s current military authority will not expand eastward by even one inch if the United States maintains its presence in Germany within the framework of NATO.”[1]
The words hung in the air. It was clear. If the USSR allowed a reunified Germany to stay in NATO, the alliance would not expand further. No troops, no bases, no slow march toward the Soviet Union’s borders. It was a gentleman’s agreement, sealed with a handshake and a nod!
But the imperialists had other plans. Over the years, NATO has marched eastward: Poland, the Baltic states, former Soviet republics… It expanded in three waves over the past 25 years, growing from 17 member countries to 32! Each expansion was a new attack on Russia, and every denial by the imperialist West was met with angry accusations: “You swore this would never happen!”
Such naive anger! What blind trust in imperialist hyenas! Years later, in 2015, Russian President Putin said in a televised interview that former Soviet and Russian officials, even himself, had held this naive belief that NATO’s eastward expansion was based on a misunderstanding. “But this was wrong,” he added, “the West was trying to divide Russia into five parts, according to the plan of Kissinger and Brzezinsky.”
Those who wish to understand Russia’s stance against imperialist aggression today should keep this point in mind.
Pushing NATO to the borders of non-aligned states was a deliberate provocation. This created legitimate security concerns, destabilized regions (e.g., Eastern Europe, the Balkans), and created crises that imperialism used to legitimize further intervention and control. One of the greatest victims of this process, as you are well aware, was socialist Yugoslavia.
From the imperialists’ point of view, NATO’s eastward expansion was of vital importance. The absorption of the former socialist countries was necessary for the elimination of socialist dynamics and the integration of these countries into the imperialist-capitalist system.
Secondly, capitalism, already in crisis, needed access to new markets, new and cheap skilled labor, and new and cheap natural resources and raw materials. This would provide a temporary lifeline to the crisis-ridden system. Besides, expansion demands massive military spending from new members, enriching the military-industrial complex while diverting resources from social needs. (During the DenHaag summit, member countries have been forced to increase their military budgets to 5% of their GDP. This is a huge source of profit for the imperialist military-industrial complex! Especially for the Americans!) It forces targeted states to respond militarily, accelerating a dangerous arms race and increasing the risk of nuclear confrontation. Global security is sacrificed for capitalist profit.
Third, there was a need for a strengthened and expanded NATO to suppress the revolutionary movement of the working class and laborers in the former socialist countries and capitalist societies in general. This NATO would be organized on the basis of an “anti-uprising strategy” to suppress the popular uprisings developing worldwide.
Fourth, it was necessary to destroy the forces of socialism, the cultural fabric created by socialism, and the dynamics of socialism in the broadest sense, even if they were defeated, internally divided, and scattered. As reflected in RAND reports, Russia’s current existence posed a natural obstacle to imperialist goals. Therefore, it was necessary to encircle Russia and divide it into at least five easily conquerable parts. NATO’s expansion eastward was an indispensable necessity for this purpose.
Fifth, after all this had been accomplished, as we can clearly see today, NATO’s expansion into the Pacific and as far as Africa and Latin America was necessary. The aim was to completely isolate countries resisting socialism, keep them under military pressure, and force them to surrender.
And finally, in line with the new level of capital accumulation, the entire economic structure of all dependent countries had to be transformed into a simple extension of the economies of imperialist countries. For this, all these countries had to be completely subjugated in every respect. This process, which we can describe as “full/total annexation,” is not a process that will develop on the basis of “voluntarism.” From this perspective, NATO will be expanded step by step as a structure capable of crushing any point of resistance in dependent countries. It is for this reason that NATO will be freed from geographical limitations and transformed into a global apparatus.
Remember, NATO facilitates illegal interventions (e.g., Yugoslavia, Libya) under “humanitarian” pretexts. It escalates global tensions by normalizing the violation of national sovereignty through expansion, regime change tactics, “color revolutions” (which are actually outright counter-revolutions), and support for reactionary forces.
Thus, expansion deepens the division of the world into imperialist and anti-imperialist camps. Its core purpose remains suppressing socialist movements, progressive governments, and any challenge to capitalist hegemony.
However, as we have seen in Ukraine, Palestine, and most recently in the 12-day war, imperialists and NATO have definite limitations. They cannot sustain wars for long periods. They do not have the manpower, ammunition, or production capacity to do so. The limitations of their military power are the biggest obstacle they face.
On the other hand, the peoples of the world, workers, and laborers are standing up against imperialist barbarians everywhere. They are under the pressure of anti-imperialist forces. The imperialists led by the US will not achieve their goals.
Nevertheless, this does not reduce the danger facing our world. On the contrary, precisely because they are losing, the imperialists are recklessly driving the world toward destruction. They believe that only a great war of destruction will allow them to survive. The number of those who see a “doomsday” involving the use of nuclear weapons among the imperialists as salvation is growing.
We are at a treshold. On the one hand we are experiencing global uprisings, revolts, revolutions, a chain of anticapitalist actions, revolutionary developments; On the other hand, we are witnessing intense attempts for fascistification of societies as a result of the collapse of the imperialist-capitalist system, and at the abbys of a destructive war. NATO does not merely tolerate fascistic elements; it actively cultivates and relies on them. We have to fight with NATO’s anti-Russian, anti-Chinese, anti-DPRK and anti-communist agenda.
This is a major split. A deep polarization across the world. We are facing the consequences of the global revolutionary situation and global civil war that we have been talking about for a quarter of a century. Either these conditions will be overcome by revolutions that will pave the way for socialism, or decay and collapse will drag the whole society and nature to extinction. This is the fundamental dilemma of our time!
The objective conditions scream with revolutionary potential. The crisis is systemic and terminal. The exploitation is unbearable. The imperialist beast, embodied in structures like NATO, reveals its fascistic gangs ever more openly. The masses are stirring, fighting back in countless ways. The question is not if revolution is necessary, but when and howwe make it victorious.
Now is the time! This is not a call for adventurism, but a recognition of the concrete historical moment. The deepening crisis creates ruptures. The intensifying repression exposes the true nature of the bourgeois state. The global interconnectedness of struggle means victories anywhere inspire resistance everywhere.
Now is the time for revolution!
[1] National Security Archive, “NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard” (1990 declassified memcon: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/)
